Watertown, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS63 KABR 111907
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
207 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog across northeast SD tonight, with visibility down to
  below 1 mile at times.

- Warm, dry, and windy on Sunday with record/near record highs
  and critical fire weather conditions for portions of
  central/south central SD.

- Unsettled pattern early next week with thunderstorm chances
  for the eastern CWA Monday afternoon. Marginal Risk (level 1
  of 5) for severe storms along the SD/MN border and further
  eastward more into central MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Still seeing drizzle across portions of the eastern CWA early this
afternoon and expect that to continue for at least a few hours. Back
edge of the stratus deck across central SD has pushed far enough
east to clear KPIR out of the clouds. Trend for the overnight is
still for this stratus deck to eventually move eastward and erode
from the west/south into early Sunday morning. Models are showing a
pretty quick erosion by early morning as a sharp warm frontal
boundary moves northeast across the region overnight, with warmer
and drier air in its wake as winds also turn to more of a southwest
direction. Models still indicating fog across portions of the
eastern CWA as well, so left mention of that in the forecast.

Later this afternoon, there may be a few showers/thundershowers
across western SD that move northeast and perhaps approach the
western fringes of the CWA by early evening. Have small PoPs (20-
30%) for this in the grids for the evening/overnight as the warm
front moves northeast.

Focus then shifts to Sunday as we`ll be in the warm/dry air mass in
the wake of the warm front. Westerly mixing winds will increase
through the day with inverted-V soundings for most locations across
the CWA. Increased highs a few degrees beyond inherited NBM values,
which puts most places in the upper 70s to low 80s. Also lowered
dewpoints more towards NBM25, while increasing winds just a couple
knots. All this puts the southwest CWA into, or flirting with Red
Flag criteria, so went ahead and issued the warning for our
southwest CWA from 17Z to 00Z tomorrow. May need headlines for fire
wx on Monday also, as current RH/wind forecast meets, or is very
close to criteria for our southwest CWA once again.

Precip chances return to the forecast on Monday as a wave of low
pressure moves eastward along a frontal boundary which is forecast
to be located across southern SD. Potential exists for a few
thunderstorms over the southeastern CWA, but better severe storm
parameters and resultant severe storm threat looks to be setting up
further east over into MN. But, SPC Day 3 outlook does bring the
western extent of strong thunderstorm potential into the very far
eastern CWA, and CAMs do hint at some convective potential in that
area, so something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs over KABR/KATY have quickly lowered to IFR at the start of
the TAF period, and may even drop a bit further into LIFR by
late afternoon and persisting into the evening/nighttime hours.
Also seeing areas of -DZ at these terminals, which should
persist to some extent into the afternoon hours. Areas of BR/FG
will also bring VSBY down to MVFR/IFR at times this afternoon
into the nighttime hours. In fact, KATY could see a period of
VSBY below 1 mile.

Over KMBG, mainly MVFR CIGs forecast at the start of the TAF
period, with improvements to VFR forecast by late
afternoon/early evening.

For KPIR, it appears MVFR CIGs will depart the area at the start
of the TAF period, with VFR conditions forecast through the
period.

Also of note, low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be an issue for
the evening/overnight hours into early Sunday morning and have
mention of this for all TAF sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT