Watertown, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS63 KABR 100708
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
208 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke (aloft and near-surface) from Canadian wildfires returns
  to the region on today, with noticeable concentrations (reduced
  visibility) at the ground possible.

- A generally dry forecast next few days, with any mention of
  severe thunderstorms and precipitation in the forecast holding
  off until late next week/next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

In the near term, the focus is on a plume of Canadian wildfire smoke
extending down into eastern Montana. visibilities in that area are
currently running between three and six miles. as such will continue
to forecast those visibilities at the surface as smoke descends into
into western counties through the course of the morning. We also
added additional sky cover to account for the smoke pivoting
eastwards through the course of the day. Low level flow is westerly
which would normally suggest enhanced mixing however increasing high
smoke could offset those favorable mixing conditions. HRRR and RAP
models show that the plume of smoke (both at the surface and aloft)
sits overhead tonight and then begins its departure on Monday. low
level flow on Monday is southwesterly so again we have a scenario
where enhanced mixing may be counteracted by the impact of the
smoke. as such well stick with nbm temperatures through Monday.

There is a weak trough passage Monday which will provide some ascent
for convection. NAM BUFKIT show mainly shallow (5-10kft tall)
convection with skinny CAPE.

The broad upper trough begins to depart Tuesday with a shortwave
that traverses Montana potentially generating some weather for us
what late Wednesday into Thursday. During that time we see
increasing temperatures and dew points with the NBM dewpoints back
close to 70 again Thursday afternoon. This is backed up by
AI/machine learning with ncar Medium range convective hazards
forecasting low probabilities for the latter half of next week and
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditons until surface visibility starts to get reduced due
to canadian wildfire smoke through the course of the TAF period.
VSBY expected to drop to MVFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07